If not Kamala Harris, who could be the Democratic nominee for the November election?
New York City/Chicago: President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign and withdraw from the US presidential race has created enough momentum for Vice President Kamala Harris to run for president, according to three Arab American analysts. become a democratic party.
Biden, who endorsed Harris in his withdrawal announcement on Sunday, is leading in polls amid a growing Arab-American #LeaveBiden movement and broader calls for President Donald Trump to withdraw from the 2024 race after his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate in Atlanta. Formerly America was behind. .
What was supposed to be a coronation for the 81-year-old Biden at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Aug. 19 has now become a public contest in which nearly 4,700 state-by-state delegates will vote for their preferred candidate to challenge Trump. give Republican Party candidate.
Rana Ebter, host of Al-Sharq News in Washington, D.C., expects Harris to be the Democratic nominee, though several other candidates may be considered. Still, he believes Democrats “must show unity” to win the November election.
“Today, what we're noticing is that one by one the Democrats are starting to support Harris,” he told Arab News. There were some delegates in several states who had already voted to support Kamala Harris. This means their votes will be reflected at the Democratic National Convention.
Other Democrats who have yet to endorse Harris are expected to fall in line soon. At some point we will see all or most Democrats rally behind Harris. It's crucial for Democrats to show a show of unity after the crisis their party faced after President Biden announced he would not run for a second term.
Biden's withdrawal from the race frees up his convention delegates from all 50 states and territories to endorse any candidate during the convention. Many alternative names have been floated, including centrist Sen. Joe Manchin, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, former First Lady Michelle Obama, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
Noting that Harris is popular among African-American voters, a mainstay of support for the Democratic Party, Abter said many still see him as part of the Biden administration's policies that fueled the #QuitBiden movement. , in which Arabs and Muslims voted in a key swing. Call primaries for “uncommitted” or “no vote” candidates instead of president.
“Harris is not very popular in the polls,” Abter said. Many Democrats worry that his chances against Trump will be the same as President Biden's against Trump. Of course, in the coming days we will see Harris speaking to voters, because in the past in the role of vice president, he has not spoken directly to the American people in many cases.
Biden gave him the issue of immigration, which in itself puts him in a very awkward position, especially given that the Republicans' main attack on Democrats is immigration and border security.
But I believe that the most important element here is not Harris. Who will he pick as his running mate because voters need excitement. “Democratic voters need excitement to get out and vote.”
Ebter said third-party candidates, such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein, are often seen as “election spoilers” — people who might take votes away from Harris or even Trump.
“Kennedy's numbers are considered very high for an independent candidate, and his voters could make a difference this election season by wiping out votes for … Trump or Harris … if they win the official nomination,” Abter said.
Any of the people currently being proposed as Biden's successor could become the vice presidential nominee, including Pritzker, a billionaire with presidential ambitions.
Amal Madali, a former ambassador to the United Nations and managing director of Bridge International Group, thinks Harris has a “comprehension problem”.
He told Arab News: The perception is that he was not a strong vice president, he will not be a strong candidate, and he cannot defeat Trump.
Although Democrats appeared to be moving quickly to back Harris, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Monday, Madal Ali remained cautious.
It's all up in the air because there are still very strong Democrats who want an open caucus and there's an open field for everyone to throw their hat in the ring and see if they can land the strongest Democratic candidate. . able to defeat Trump.”
He added that the influence of independent candidates in the elections cannot be ignored.
“In a very close election, independent candidates can do a lot of damage. Because this election is such a close race — you're talking about a few thousand or so votes — that can make an election campaign. slow down or destroy
Let's say if Kennedy could get a lot of Democratic votes, that would hurt the Democrats even more and that would be a big problem for them.
But we still do not know who will be the candidate of the Democratic Party. If Fred is a very strong candidate, the party may be able to unify an anti-Trump constituency, which will overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic nominee. In this case, independents will not make a difference.”
Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes that Harris will “barely” replace Biden as the running mate, and suggested that Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer could be his running mate on the first “all-women ticket.”
“There is a lot of speculation about who will be his running mate, including the possibility of an all-female ticket if Whitmer is elected,” she told Arab News. This is unprecedented and carries risks. But Whitmer could help deliver the key swing state of Michigan, and an all-female team could re-energize an already largely demoralized Democratic base.
He added: “Harris' popularity rating among the American people has never been higher. But at this point, the Democratic Party and President Biden's decision to bring up his name is largely based on budget and finances. He is the only person who can qualify for all the money, hundreds of millions of dollars, that have been raised so far. Therefore, his choice for an electoral candidate will also be key in terms of securing the Democratic base and the general liking of that Democratic ticket.”
Maxad believes that Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race and speculation that Whitmer will be added to the ticket may affect the strong Arab and Muslim vote in Michigan, as many of them are in the Democratic primary race on February 27. They voted against the Biden-Harris team. .
“Arab Americans are not unified,” he said. “They're a diverse group with different priorities spread across four battleground states. Michigan gets a lot of attention, but so do Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.
In Michigan, where there are 100,000 of them, they have strong feelings about the war in Gaza, and President Biden is not doing enough to stop the war. Biden's resignation opens up the potential for the Democratic Party to make inroads again among Arab Americans in Michigan. “And if the vice president (elect) is actually the governor of Michigan, that gives Democrats more opportunities to make inroads and win back Michigan as a key battleground state.”
