Athens/Qamsli, Syria: Since 2022, senior Syrian and Turkish officials have met periodically in Moscow for talks mediated by Russia. But these meetings have not been able to warm up their icy relations.
However, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announcing his desire to restore official ties with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, it is now a different matter.
Earlier this month, he said he could invite Assad to Turkey “at any moment”, to which the Syrian leader replied that any visit would depend on “content”.
Ankara and Damascus cut diplomatic ties in 2011 after the start of the Syrian civil war. Relations have remained hostile since then, particularly with Turkey's continued support for armed groups resisting the Assad regime.
Since the start of the civil war in 2011, Turkey has supported Syrian armed groups in their fight against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. (AFP)
So what is the motivation to change course now? And what are the possible consequences of the normalization of relations between Türkiye and Syria?
Syrian author and political researcher Shorush Darwish believes that President Erdoğan is seeking normalization for two reasons. He told Arab News: “The first is the preparation for the possible entry of the new American government under the leadership of Donald Trump, which means the possibility of returning to the policy of withdrawing the United States from Syria.”
Therefore, Erdogan should cooperate with Assad and Russia.
This photo, published by the Syrian Arab News Agency, shows Syrian President Bashar al-Assad meeting with then Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Aleppo. (SANA/AFP)
Darvish says that the second reason is Erdogan's desire to get closer to the ally of the Syrian regime, Russia, after Turkey's deviation towards the United States following the war in Ukraine. Indeed, as a NATO member state, the conflict has complicated Turkey's normally balanced approach to its relations with Washington and Moscow.
Darvish said: Ankara's cooperation with Moscow is difficult in terms of the Ukraine issue. As a result of the significant involvement of the West in this issue, their cooperation in Syria is a meeting point through which Erdogan wants to highlight his friendship with Putin and Moscow's interests in the Middle East.
Those in rebel-held northwest Syria, backed by Turkey, see Ankara's proximity to Damascus as a betrayal.
Protesters in Idlib and the rebel-held suburbs of Aleppo waved flags of the Syrian revolution and held signs that read: “If you want to get close to Assad, congratulations, history curses you.” Wind.” (Photo by Ali Ali)
In one of several demonstrations in Idlib since the beginning of July, demonstrators held signs in Arabic that read: “If you want to get close to Assad, congratulations, history curse you.”
Abdul Karim Omar, a political activist from Idlib, told Arab News: Western Syria, Idlib, the outskirts of Aleppo and all areas belonging to the opposition completely reject this behavior because this behavior only benefits the Syrian regime.
“Syrian people came out 13 years ago and rose up in their revolution and demanded freedom, dignity and building a civil and democratic country for all Syrian people. This can only be achieved by overthrowing the tyrannical Syrian regime represented by Bashar al-Assad. “They are still clinging to this principle and these slogans and cannot let go of them.”
Those in areas controlled by the Kurdish-led and US-backed Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, or AANES, which holds much of Syria's territory east of the Euphrates River, are also wary of the consequences of normalization.
A map of Syria showing areas under the control of different parties as of late 2020. Some cities that were under the control of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces at that time were captured by Turkish forces. (AFP/File)
Omar said, “There is concern among people that reconciliation may be a prelude to punishing Syrian Kurds for their political choices.”
The invasion of Syria from 2016 to 2019 saw Turkey gain control of several cities, many of which were previously under AANES control.
Turkey's justification for the 2018 and 2019 invasions and its continued presence on Syrian soil was to create a “safe zone” between itself and the armed forces of the Syrian Democratic Forces (AANES).
A member of the Syrian Kurdish security forces Asaish stands guard as mourners march at the funeral of two Kurdish women killed in a Turkish drone strike in Hasakah, northeastern Syria, on June 21, 2023. (AFP)
Turkey considers the SDF to be the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, a group that has been at war with the Turkish government since the 1980s.
“Naturally, the Syrian Kurds know that they will be part of any deal that Erdogan wants to make with Assad,” Darwish said. This unnerves the Syrian Kurds, who see Turkey as ready to do anything to harm them and their experience in self-rule.
Darwish says that Syrian Kurds accept reconciliation with three conditions. First, they want to see Turkey withdraw its forces from Afrin and Ras al-Ain. Second, ending Turkish attacks against AANES areas. And third, a guarantee from the Assad regime that “Syrian Kurds will enjoy their national, cultural and administrative rights”.
In this photo taken on January 27, 2018, a Turkish military convoy passes through the Onkopinar border crossing as troops enter Syria during a military operation in the Kurdish-controlled area of Afrin, Syria. (AFP/File)
But what is the probability of the proximity of Ankara and Damascus? Not so much, according to Thoreau Redcrow, conflict analyst and UNHRC representative. He told Arab News: “I consider the prospect of de-escalation between Erdogan and Assad very unlikely.
Historically, Turkey's ideas for normalization with Syria constitute a policy of unilateral influence in favor of Ankara. In this arrangement, Turkey continues to occupy Hatay (Lyva Eskenderun), which it captured from Syria in 1938, and, as in the Adana Agreement of 1998, demands a military invasion of its sovereignty, but gives nothing in return.
In his public statements, Assad has clearly said that the meeting between him and Erdogan will only take place on the condition that Turkey leaves Syria. Red Crow believes that Türkiye has no intention of leaving.
“I can't see Damascus being interested in manipulating for a photo shoot,” he said. “The Syrian government is much more proud than some other regional actors who are happy to be one of the 'neo-Ottoman provinces' of Turkey.”
Erdogan may be trying to capitalize on the normalization process among Arab states that began in earnest with Syria's return to the Arab League last year. However, European countries and the United States still disagree.
Syrian female soldiers march in a rebel-held area in northern Syria. (Photo by Ali Ali)
While Germany, France, Italy and Britain in particular are more focused on how Turkey can control the gateway to Europe and act as a “continental fighter” for asylum seekers from the Middle East and West Asia, the U.S. It focuses more on denial. Russia and Iran again have full access to all of Syria for strategic reasons, such as access to the Mediterranean Sea and the “Shia land bridge” from Tehran to Beirut.
The status quo is far more beneficial to Washington than any compromise, as it also endangers parts of northeastern Syria, where the US military is stationed with its most reliable military partner against ISIS in the Syrian Democratic Forces. Therefore, Turkey will not be given any kind of green light to jeopardize American interests.
The US House of Representatives in February passed the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act of 2023, which prohibits any normalization with Assad. In a post on social media platform X on July 12, the bill's author, Rep. Joe Wilson, expressed his frustration with Erdogan's calls for normalization, likening it to “normalization with death itself.”
Although there may be little chance for reconciliation to succeed at this point, the approximately 3.18 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey view even rumors of normalization with trepidation.
Amal Hayat, a Syrian mother living in southeastern Turkey, told Arab News: “People are very afraid. Since the (reconciliation) rumors started, many people don't even leave their homes. “Even if they are beaten by their bosses at work, they are afraid to say anything for fear of being fired.”
A Syrian woman is seen in a refugee camp near the Syrian-Turkish border. (Photo by Ali Ali)
Turkish authorities deported more than 57,000 Syrians in 2023, according to Human Rights Watch.
“Forced return will affect us a lot,” Hayat said. For example, if a woman returns to Syria with her family, her husband may be arrested by the regime. Or if a man is deported to Syria and his wife and children stay in Türkiye, what will happen? This is difficult. Our children can study here. They have stability and security.”
The fear of deportation has been exacerbated by the wave of violence against Syrian refugees that has swept southern Turkey in recent weeks. On June 30, residents of Kayseri province in central Turkey attacked Syrians and their property.
Anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkey is partly due to economic issues, where Turks see underpaid or unpaid Syrians as a threat to their job prospects.
Hayat said: “The Turks are very happy for us to return home. For them, this is soon not enough. We all live under high levels of stress. We only pray that (Assad and Erdogan) do not reconcile.”
